Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.199046 1.360040 1.530301 1.723334 1.935655 2.161616 2.419816
2025-02-02 0.972283 1.193005 1.440975 1.738496 2.083988 2.470732 2.934501
2025-02-09 0.788227 1.044274 1.349133 1.734841 2.205484 2.756618 3.445961
2025-02-16 0.644581 0.922035 1.271826 1.737510 2.332771 3.059294 4.003173
2025-02-23 0.509808 0.790156 1.165027 1.690298 2.393066 3.285648 4.487632
2025-03-02 0.391726 0.660941 1.043672 1.608535 2.399262 3.443220 4.898132
2025-03-09 0.319003 0.583948 0.983028 1.600855 2.501716 3.732521 5.499859
2025-03-16 0.255118 0.508463 0.913375 1.570958 2.568907 3.978141 6.059983
2025-03-23 0.218935 0.471460 0.897040 1.617721 2.749606 4.393188 6.879424
2025-03-30 0.171882 0.405293 0.823429 1.565659 2.776439 4.588789 7.401047
2025-04-06 0.139167 0.358451 0.774858 1.547223 2.851653 4.858376 8.043720
2025-04-13 0.111104 0.313955 0.722959 1.515866 2.901681 5.091211 8.643529
2025-04-20 0.094424 0.291051 0.709980 1.555071 3.077570 5.539712 9.610497
2025-04-27 0.079478 0.268123 0.693259 1.585565 3.241701 5.981116 10.593304
2025-05-04 0.065340 0.242874 0.667308 1.595286 3.370398 6.373781 11.522335
2025-05-11 0.053871 0.220958 0.644543 1.608189 3.505544 6.785174 12.503080
2025-05-18 0.041758 0.192323 0.600629 1.571912 3.546351 7.039925 13.243281
2025-05-25 0.030654 0.161507 0.544370 1.500964 3.513806 7.165236 13.775419
2025-06-01 0.024530 0.145093 0.520975 1.498522 3.613197 7.525944 14.717613
2025-06-08 0.018919 0.127421 0.489947 1.473934 3.665354 7.804244 15.531639
2025-06-15 0.016259 0.120979 0.489447 1.521378 3.868387 8.366787 16.859428
2025-06-22 0.011990 0.103802 0.452472 1.474181 3.868623 8.554209 17.539445
2025-06-29 0.009231 0.092125 0.429468 1.458443 3.933789 8.865291 18.449487